Predictive Hacks

How to Gamble Wisely

thompson sampling

Useful Tips for Gambling to Keep you Away from the Danger Zone

The less you bet, the less you lose

Predictive Hacks

My Experience with Gambling

Gambling is the wagering of money on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the primary intent of winning money. I do not consider myself a “gambler”, however, as a Data Scientist, I have worked closely with many gamblers as well as with betting companies designing casino and lottery games. In addition, I use to bet on sports, like NBA, Euroleague, World Cup and Champions League.

I have seen many people that have lost a ton of money from gambling and for that reason, I would like to give my piece of advice about how you should gamble.

Know your Odds ⚖️

All lottery and casino games have a negative expected return, which means that it is expected to lose in a long term. I strongly recommend before you enter any game to know the expected pay-off. For example, in European roulette, you are expected to lose 2.7% of your betting amount, in American roulette the house margin increases to 5.26%. In KENO you are expected to lose 30% of your betting amount and in sports betting the Bookmaker’s margin is around 6.22% which increases in the multiple stakes. Finally, you have to be aware of the taxes that you will need to pay in case you win a big amount.

By knowing the odds it will help you to gamble more wisely and not to blame your luck when you start losing. “It’s math, stupid!

Set your Budget 💰

The most important thing is to set your “gambling budget” and to stick to it. Let’s assume that your monthly budget for gambling is 50$. This means, that the total amount that you bet within a month must not exceed the 50$. It doesn’t matter if you win or lose. For example, if you play roulette with a minimum bet of 5$, it means that you can play up to 10 times within a month.

Also, if you have not “spent” your monthly budget in one month, you cannot add it to the next month. By setting a monthly budget you set a “downside risk” where the worst-case scenario is your total loss to be equal to your gambling budget. For example, if your monthly budget is 50$, it means that your maximum loss within a year is 12 x 50 = 600$.

Bet what you can Afford to Lose 💲

The betting amount should be from the extra money that you have and you can afford to lose. Actually, you should consider this amount as “spendings” for your pleasure, like the amount that you spend on drinks. This means that the “gambling budget” should be considered as expenses and you need to adjust it to your financial situation.

Never Borrow 🏦

You are in deep shit if you borrow money for gambling. You must avoid being in such a position at any cost. Actually, this is a real danger zone and is difficult to escape.

Stop Loss 🛑

Most gamblers get trapped when they want to win back the amount that they have lost. Set a stop-loss threshold and once you reach it, stop playing.

Be Sober 🍷

Out of question, you need to be sober when you gamble.

Keep Track of your History 📊📈

All the gamblers remember their lucky days where they won significant amounts, but none is in a position to tell you precisely how much they have made in a long term. I urge you to keep track of all your bets. If you play via some betting platforms, it is easier to keep track of the amount that you have deposited and the amount that you have withdrawn. Most probably, you will get surprised by the amount that you have lost in a long term.

Do not Bet your Profits 🚫

Some gamblers consider their profits as an extra amount that are allowed to bet it. “I didn’t lose money, it was from my profits of the previous stake”. This is a wrong statement. When you lose money — you lose money, as simple as that. It does not matter if you won a previous bet. At some point, you had xxx$ in your pocket and finally, you lost it. This is a loss!

Take a Break ☕

It is good to take a break from gambling for a long period of time. Something like detoxification. This period can be from one month to one year. It is a good test to see if you can control yourself. If you face difficulties to take a break for a long time, then it means that you are already addicted and you are entering the danger zone.

Ask for Help 🙋

Gambling is extremely addictive. If at any point you start noticing that you cannot control yourself then do not hesitate to ask for help. A good starting point is the self-exclusions from the betting platforms.

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